Audio Video News

Overshadowed by the Athens Olympic Games and the start of the Republican National Convention, the second annual HDTV Forum 2004 was a resounding success. Held the last week of August at the Westin Century Plaza in Los Angeles, the event was completely sold out, according to organizing companies DisplaySearch of Austin, TX and Insight Media of Norwalk, CT.

The three-day event hosted 338 attendees from 12 different countries and featured 11 corporate sponsors, 14 exhibitors, 10 media sponsors, two audio/visual sponsors, and 15 media organizations—a diverse group from across the TV food chain, including representatives from TV and cable networks, content creators, government agencies, satellite and cable providers, retailers, distributors, TV brands, TV OEMs, panel/tube/engine manufacturers, and IC manufacturers.

The HDTV format has made great strides in the past year, participants agreed, although noted that consumers need more education about the format and all involved in delivering it—manufacturers, cable and satellite providers, retailers, TV networks, local broadcasters, and independent production companies—need to pull together to really make HDTV succeed.

The driving force for this success is and will be HD sports, according to the first day's keynote speaker, Bryan Burns, vice president of strategic business planning and development for ESPN HD. Among key drivers for the growing demand of HDTV will be ESPN HD's 6000 hours of HD programming in 2004, Burns told attendees.

Both Burns and HD Net's Mark Cuban touted the advantages of 1080p. One audience survey estimated that by 2006, sales of 720p RPTV sets would equal those of 1080p sets. In another survey, more than 80% of attendees indicated they would buy 1080p LCD and microdisplay RPTVs over lower priced 720p LCD, PDP and microdisplay RPTVs. In another session, some experts stated that 720p content could look better on a 1080p display than a 720p set. Some view this as a potentially confusing issue for consumers, as there will then be three standards for HD: 720p, 1080i, and 1080p. Others saw this more pragmatically as an opportunity to offer 1080p as the "crme de la crme" of HD consumer options similar to the traditional "good, better, best, model." The broadcast industry still has many challenges in capturing and transmitting 1080p content, attendees noted.

HDNet's Mark Cuban said his company's strategy for HDTV content is to "break the mold, not stick to it" by delivering a higher quality viewing experience. Cuban is pushing for the 1080p format and asked TV manufacturers to constantly strive to provide the finest quality viewing experience for the consumer, the same goal HDNet holds. Cuban also goaded attendees to "Ignore Hollywood" when it comes to content protection. In fact, he encouraged anyone to record his HDNet programming—"just don't sell it." Cuban plans to offer simultaneous distribution of HDNet-funded movies in theaters, on DVD and via other systems because, "I don't want someone telling me when I have to watch a movie." Cuban also challenged the TV industry to "make next generation DVDs unnecessary" by developing removable media offering less compression and higher quality, to allow consumers to build libraries of content that "simply plugs into a TV."

Among the barriers to faster adoption of HDTV are infrastructure and legislative issues, according to Dr. Jeffrey Hart of Indiana University, author of a book on the politics of DTV called Technology, TV and Competition. "Legislators aren't technically savvy," Hart stated. "They're being lobbied by the large money interests who aren't necessarily looking at the public's best interests."

In an audience poll, 76% of attendees indicated the 85% loophole should be closed and a mandatory deadline should be set for ending analog broadcasting. A majority of the audience also voted for the formation of a global HDTV association to promote common HDTV standards in order to promote HDTV adoption worldwide. Industry standards could help ensure interoperability among a growing number of devices. The audience also thought the US government should focus its efforts on accelerating HDTV rather than DTV adoption and on helping overcome bandwidth issues that limit ultimate HDTV quality as well as the number of available HDTV channels.

Another audience poll revealed that most consumers want ATSC tuners in their HDTVs, but when asked which delivery system offered the best overall quality of service, there was no clear winner: 44% favored satellite, 34% favored cable and 16% prefer over-the-air broadcast. Regarding TV vs PC, Scott Ramirez of Toshiba said consumers don't want to "re-boot" their TV, run Excel or PowerPoint, or "surf the net as a group." Even so, consumers will accept the advancements brought on by the PC/digital revolution including some form of hard drive storage, wireless connectivity and download capabilities, he mentioned.

Industry experts predict that average TV prices will first climb then drop, as HDTV becomes the dominant format. When HDTVs exceed 50% of TV sales, the average TV selling price could actually climb from $450 to $623 between 2004 and 2008, according to DisplaySearch. Blended prices are expected to peak in 2007. Flat-panel TVs are expected to account for a 36% unit share and 72% revenue share in 2008 as prices fall.

DisplaySearch projects that the 40–49" category should enjoy the fastest growth as LCDs, PDPs, and microdisplay RPTVs are all priced aggressively to lead this segment. In 2008, DisplaySearch expects CRTs to lead at 10–32", LCD TVs to lead the 33–39" category, PDPs to lead the 40–49" category, and RPTVs to lead the 50"+ market. By region, LCD TVs are projected to lead in Japan and North America with CRTs leading in Europe, China and ROW. China is projected to enjoy the fastest growth.

Help, please: Despite the growing acceptance of HDTV technology, consumers will still need the help of HDTV experts, attendees agreed–not only to help them make the right purchasing decisions, but also how to integrate and use their new equipment with complex home entertainment systems. High return rates on DTVs at club warehouses underscores this need, they noted.

DisplaySearch also predicts that the ultimate future of HDTV is probably the LCD panel, for technical and economic reasons. "LCD TVs can easily achieve 1080p resolution across a wide range of size categories, offers superior brightness and contrast, and there will be enough LCD capacity in place in 2008 to meet non-TV market demand as well as 80% of the demand of the entire TV market. As a result, LCD prices will fall aggressively over the next few years as LCD suppliers try to keep their multi-billion dollar fabs (fabrication plants) operating at high utilization levels. On the other hand, this holiday season, PDPs and 1080i CRTs will be more affordable than ever." Some HDTV Forum speakers forecast pricing of 42" ED PDP TVs as low as $1599 for the coming winter holiday shopping season.