Ears On

Has HD DVD Beaten Blu-ray?

Mark Fleischmann  |  Dec 27, 2006

How much bad news has analyst Rob Enderle got for the Blu-ray camp? On top of all that other bad news? Let me count the blows:

  • HD DVD players sell for half ($500) the cost of Blu-ray players ($1000+).
  • HD DVD movie prices average $5 less.
  • Some have the advantage of a standard-def DVD side for compatibility.
  • They're selling better on Amazon.
  • The year-end installed base of HD DVD equipped Xboxes will beat PS3 twentyfold.
  • PS3, of course, is having shipping problems.
  • Blu-ray supporter HP has defected, introducing a $100 HD DVD drive upgrade. Enderle's conclusion: "With a 4x to 6x advantage by year end, you'd have to conclude that HD-DVD has reached a point where it can’t lose and Blu-Ray is only now in a position to ensure both platforms lose." Blu-ray, he says, will survive "only for PS3 games and high-end optical backup." He urges readers to follow the advice of HD Now and petition for a single format. He admits, though, that in the past he's bet on Blu-ray. And there are still plenty of other things Sony does right.

    • COMMENTS
    Stephen's picture
    Submitted by Stephen (not verified) on January 25, 2007 - 10:28am

    I suspect the format war is far from over, but near my home, personal observation seems to indicate that Blu-Ray should win, which I find surprising given HD-DVD's initial lead. Blu-Ray has only really entered the picture the last couple of months. First, Disney is behind Blu-Ray, and my kids know all about Blu-Ray from recent Disney DVD's, and are asking me when are we getting "Blu." What about HD-DVD I ask. "Who?" Second, at my local Best Buy, the Blu-Ray titles are starting to crowd out the HD-DVD titles, and by quite a bit. Also, on nearly every visit since Christmas I see people buying Blu-Ray discs (and always more than one at that). This is no doubt due to Sony's PS3. I haven't seen anyone buy an HD-DVD disc. At this point, it seems that all Blu-Ray need to do to end the war is get some of the non-PS3 players down below $500 (and soon) to end Toshiba's dominance in that area. The studios will eventually go where the sales are and that should end this little war.

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