FRED MANTEGHIAN BLOG

There’s no better way to make yourself seem foolish than by trying to predict the future, but if I limit myself to one year, how far off can I be?

The high definition video format Blu-ray will be delayed, much like HD-DVD has, but when it comes out second quarter, spearheaded by Sony’s PS3 game console, you won’t be able to spell HD-DVD, much less buy one. The real push for Blu-ray won’t come until late in the year however, as dads and sons join forces to kill two virtual birds with one high-tech stone. As a backward compatible movie and gaming platform, the PS3 has it hands down over the competition in the practicality department.

Sony will learn from Microsoft’s mistakes with the X-Box 360 introduction and 2006 holiday supplies of the PS3 will leave no one bidding $1,000 on Ebay.

By Christmas 2006, the price of a no frills 50” Plasma set will be $1,499, rear projection 720P DLP and LCD sets will run under $25 per diagonal inch, and DVD players will be free.*

THX will purchase DTS and put it to sleep.

The trend towards mega-receivers will be reversed. Expect at least a few collaborations between large North American or British speaker manufacturers and Japanese electronic giants that result in streamlined surround processors and self-powered speakers, all in a tall, thin, wall-mountable wireless solution.

Sony’s front-projector SXRD technology will put it in first place for desirability for most of the year, but DLP projectors with Texas Instrument’s new single 1080p micro-mirror chip will beat SXRD in price and availability (though not necessarily performance) before all is said and done.

A major Canadian speaker manufacturer will be bought by the South Koreans.

Cheaper and cheaper solid state memory and Sub-$100 portable MP3 players will knock Apple off its stem. Take your flash for a drive.

The Center for Disease Control and Prevention will issue a warning that sharing ear buds is responsible for the spread of ear wax.

More of a wish than a prediction: Primedia, our owners, will once again return this book to newsstands everywhere, but in the form of a quarterly such as Ulimate AV Guide to Home Theater. There should still be room for a small picture under the title.

* with purchase, naturally!