HDTV Rollout Not Slowing Big-Screen TV Sales

The popularity of DVD and home theater is driving sales of big-screen television sets to new heights—despite the fact that the rollout of digital television may make them obsolete in the near future. Sales of big-screen sets are up 13% over 1998, according to the latest statistics from the Consumer Electronics Association. Ninety percent of the approximately 1 million units sold in 1990 were equipped to display only NTSC analog signals—or "legacy video," as industry insiders call it.

High prices for new digital sets and the lack of available programming are holding back the sets' acceptance by customers, as is uncertainty about new technology—many consumers are wary of "bugs" in the first generations of new products. Only about 100,000 high-definition sets are expected to be sold by the end of the year, but sales should accelerate as broadcasters boost HD programming. (Satellite TV service DirecTV now has two channels of HD broadcasts. Nationwide, some HD programming is available in approximately 30 cities, most of it from the major networks.)

Analog sets are still the path to video bliss for most upscale consumers, especially now that many formerly high-end features are being incorporated into big-screen sets (48 inches and up, measured diagonally) in the $2500-and-under price range. The picture quality on most of them is excellent, considering the limitations of the NTSC format, and their reliability is also quite good. The vast majority of such sets will last many years, and probably well into the fully digital era, which is now scheduled by the Federal Communications Commission to officially begin in 2003. One easy prediction: There will be a guaranteed market for HDTV receivers with "legacy video" output, for all-formats converter boxes, and for line doublers and other signal processors that can make NTSC video look almost as good as its hi-def cousin.

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