If you build them (and sell them really cheap), will they come? Toshiba is sure as hell hoping so. And no, I"m not talking about consumers. We know that around 100,00 of them will show up. I'm talking about the studios.

Blu-ray has more studio support, and its supporters certainly believe consumers will come to where the movies are. Toshiba's strategy seems to be to build the hardware install base with cheap players first, and then sell that install base to the studios- hey, if you want to sell your movies again in high-def, you have to come to HD DVD since that's where the players are.

The first great Wal-Mart HD sale of '07 is over (with another looming on Black Friday), and according to most reports 90,000 HD DVD players and perhaps a few more were sold to consumers. With the Xbox 360 add-on drives estimates are that there are 500,000 HD DVD playing devices out there. Will it make a difference? Is it already making a difference?

We've seen some early evidence that it has. In a major test of post-Paramount defection muscle, the HD DVD exclusive release of Transformers outperformed Spider-Man 3 in week one sales, and is already the best selling HD DVD title yet.

There is plenty of controversy around the numbers on both sides, but even if Paramount's Transformers numbers were fishy, something even close to sales parity on these titles would be something of a letdown for the format that has been leading 2:1 throughout this year in disc sales (if you don't believe me, ask Howard Stringer who recently went to the "stalemate" card).

Is this just a blip on the Blu radar before the Pixar effect comes into play and changes everything? Or does this say, for the first time perhaps, that HD DVD can hold its own if the title is hot enough? Does it say that the install base of standalone players and Paramount's exclusive support is already paying dividends? Does it also say that Toshiba and its supporters are onto something regarding standalone players vs. gaming consoles?

While Sony's strategy hinges almost entirely on the Trojan horse Blu-ray drive in the PlayStation3, Toshiba says gamers aren't necessarily high-def movie buyers. Although I've heard attach rate numbers that say that as few as 25-29% of PS3 owners buy movies on Blu-ray, the fact is that even that little crossover from the PS3 has apparently been enough to allow Blu-ray to dominate volume software sales in 2007.

Blu-ray's software sales advantage throughout this year has made Sony's belief in the almighty PS3 look pretty solid. But while the PS3 has sold extraordinarily well when counted as a next-gen disc player, it's no secret that it looks up at the Nintendo Wii and even the Xbox 360 as a gaming console.

In light of Paramount's defection, will the PS3 maintain enough momentum with gamers to keep its Blu-ray software sales lead? Or will HD DVD ride its low priced players long enough and hard enough to make Disney, Fox or Warner think about defecting along with Paramount? Or will the Pixar movies and the sheer tonnage of desirable Blu-ray releases from its supporting studios make Warner think about flipping in favor of only Blu-ray?

I don't know the answers, but as recently as August I really didn't expect that these would even be legitimate questions to ask by now. So, if nothing else Toshiba has accomplished that.

Can't wait to see those BD sales numbers on Ratatouille!