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Exaggerated ClaimsWhile both claims are true, their importance is overstated. Even at maximum data rates, an HD DVD has enough capacity to hold a high-definition movie plus all the extras usually found on standard DVDs. A higher data capacity is useful only if there are applications that can and must utilize it - and if there are such applications, then surely even 50 GB will not be enough. The Blu-ray camp seems to recognize this, and Sony has already demonstrated an eight-layer BD with a 200-GB capacity, but there's nothing preventing HD DVD from adding more data layers, too.

And both sides seem to have forgotten that before today's standard-definition DVD was launched, it was criticized by its opponents for being too difficult to manufacture, principally because of its laminated construction. Among those opponents, ironically enough, were Sony and Philips, now the prime movers behind Blu-ray. Back then they promoted an alternative DVD system whose optical properties - no surprise - resembled Blu-ray's. No one has published a detailed cost breakdown comparing BD and HD DVD, but it's probably safe to say that in the long run, any additional manufacturing costs for BDs will be minimal compared with the retail prices of either type of disc. After all, a standard DVD costs less than a dollar to manufacture and typically sells for 20 times that.

So two different high-def disc formats seem to be inevitable, which won't make either retailers or customers happy. Is it possible that we'll see "universal" players that can handle both? After all, today we have DVD recorder/players that can handle recordable-DVD formats that were once arch rivals (and LG announced one just a few days ago that can record and play all of the recordable-DVD formats). The HD DVD camp once said it wasn't feasible to build an inexpensive laser pickup that could read both BDs and normal DVDs. But at Pioneer's CES press conference, a representative held up a single-lens laser pickup that's said to do just that, plus reading CDs. So it's conceivable that a universal pickup could be developed that would read and record both BDs and HD DVDs as well as standard discs.

A Way OutWhat nobody seems to be talking about is the possibility of a universal disc, which would be my preferred solution . Since the laser in the Blu-ray optical system doesn't shine through a disc substrate to read the recorded data, because that's right at the surface of the disc, covered by a liquid-applied protective layer, the substrate plastic of a BD doesn't even have to be transparent. In fact, it doesn't even have to be plastic. Sony has demonstrated a paper-backed Blu-ray Disc! So it might be technically feasible to make a universally compatible disc, at least of the read-only variety used to carry movies. A dual-sided disc - one side HD DVD and the other Blu-ray - should certainly be possible, though you'd lose the space for a splashy disc label. Even a one-sided combi-disc might be feasible.

Announcements from both sides at this year's CES have come achingly close to the ideal of a universal high-def disc. Cinram introduced a hybrid HD DVD/standard DVD, while JVC announced a one-sided, read-only combination BD/standard DVD. While such combination or hybrid discs will be more expensive to manufacture than discs carrying only one format, at least at first, they would eliminate the significant retail problem of separate inventories and a consumer's enormous frustration on finding that the disc in his hand won't play in his player - or that the movie he wants is only available in a format he can't play.

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