SIGNALS

I don't particularly like phones. I do not camp out in front of Apple stores. I use my phone as infrequently as possible, which isn't very often. I leave home without it. I am not a phone guy. Mainly, I disapprove of phones because they are anathema to high-quality audio and video playback.

Here are some of actual phone-related things that happened today: A family went to dinner at a restaurant and the kids used their phones the whole time, not conversing at all. A student sat in the back of the classroom and phone-surfed, instead of listening and taking notes. Instead of sending a thoughtful, well-written email, a girl just texted and added an emoji. A guy was texting while driving and drove onto the shoulder and hit a woman on a bicycle.

Here is an actual home-theater thing that happened today: A guy listened to Beethoven's 9th Symphony, Georg Solti conducting the Chicago Symphony Orchestra.

Okay, I admit that I am kind of biased. Like I said, I don't particularly like phones. That's because, rightly or wrongly, I blame them for sucking the air out of home-theaters. Why? First, consumers can only be attracted to so much shiny tech at one time; phones are more shiny, and turn attention away from home audio/video. Second, the financial pie is only so big; with all the money spent on phones, phone plans, and subscriptions, there is scent money left for home audio/video. Third: the small screen/earbud playback quality of phones is offensively bad. Fourth: phones are soul-crushing; when music or film is well-reproduced, its emotional content is unimpeded — a powerful passage might make me tear up; with a phone, that's never going to happen. Do we really want a phone-centric future?

So, I was heartened when I saw the latest smartphone sales figures. In North America, smartphone shipments have hit a 5-year low; for 2019, sales are predicted to decline 4.4%. The global picture isn't much better. According to research firm IDC, global sales for 2019 are expected to fall 2.2%, the third straight yearly decline. IDC predicts particularly tough sledding for Apple, with a 15% decline in shipments worldwide.

The slowdown in sales is not too surprising. As with any technology, once people have a reliable device that is "good enough," they tend to hang onto it. Unless or until there is something better, or perhaps cheaper to own, sales slow down. This is exactly what is happening to phones. Manufacturers can make the screens bigger, they can make the screens foldable, they can add more cameras, they can add processing power, and that's all good. But if consumers don't perceive the benefit or the value, they won't buy. The market is saturated. Phone becomes commoditized.

Now, many people in the phone industry are not bothered by the sale slump. They contend that sales will bounce back in 2020 because the next generation of phones will have 5G. I'm not so sure about that optimism. At least among my friends and family, no one is bating their breath while waiting for 5G. And I suspect that aside from a minority of techies, the average customer doesn't care about 5G.

Another data point: 5G has been rolling out in China since June, but so far it hasn't ignited phone sales. In August, phone shipments were down 5.3% year-on-year. In time, of course, all phones will be 5G (or higher) but that's just a natural tech evolution, not necessarily indicative of a sudden sales bump.

I am a tech guy. It would be impossible to imagine all the ways that tech makes the world a better place. Yes, tech creates problems, but the upsides far outweigh the downsides. I don't hate phones, it's just that I love home audio/video a lot more. So if our enthusiasm for phones and open pocketbooks for their makers slacks off a little, and people start loving home theaters again, I wouldn't mind one bit.

This reminds me of a meme I saw recently, "Texting: Killing genuine human interaction two thumbs at a time." Hmm, maybe I do actually hate phones.